There is wide consensus among climate scientists that the earth is getting warmer. Currently, significant effort is expended to forecast the geophysical effects of global climate change. However, climate change will have downstream impacts on many complex and interrelated natural and human systems. These coming changes will produce shocks to global and regional economies, cultures, ecosystems, political institutions and human settlements. For example, what will happen when regions that are currently poor, dry and unstable become dryer still due to climate change?
Analyzing the future to map potential outcomes in the face of mounting uncertainty is the work of Peter Schwartz. Peter is a Futurist and Strategist who co-founded Global Business Network. He will discuss the potential societal and ecological impacts of widely accepted global warming scenarios. Peter will review the System Vulnerability Approach as an analytical tool for assessing change in complex human and natural systems. He will also discuss the future of global security as the impacts of climate change cascade around the world.
Peter received a B.S. in aeronautical engineering and astronautics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. He has directed the Strategic Environment Center at SRI International and the Scenario Team from Royal Dutch/Shell Group of London. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a board member of the Santa Fe Institute, the Long Now Foundation, the World Affairs Council and Human Rights Watch (Northern California). Peter has published several books, including the seminal publication on scenario planning (The Art of the Long View) and his most recent work, Inevitable Surprises.